Political Thriller? Dystopian SciFi? Standing on the cliff edge and looking over.... (Part II)

And then we have the news coming out of the U.S. to further spice the pot of politics in the western world. I confess that if I'd been writing a political novel, I would never have had the imagination to come up with a Drumpf-like candidate getting a major party's nomination in the United States of America.  The Democratic Party's current conflicts are more conceivable: we've often seen it before.  But a couple of views from Europe might be of interest with respect to our situation.

The Drumpf with his favorite politician

First, an op-ed piece in Spain's El Pais by political scientist and author José Ignacio Torreblanco on 2 June takes issue with the "nonsense" (in Spanish, he's coined the word "trumperías" as a synonym for the word "tonterías" which means nonsense or foolishness) Trump is spouting, by pointing out that U.S. greatness isn't in question anywhere other than in the Trump camp if one looks at objective fact. He also disputes any reduction in respect for the U.S., despite what he characterizes as "colossal foreign policy mistakes," and cites the numerous alliances and security agreements to which the U.S. is party. The Mexican wall he treats as the absurdity it should be. (See http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/31/opinion/1464688131_104386.html for the story; this is the Spanish. I can't find a version in the English publication of El Pais.)

Second, an article in Britain's International Business Times by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a journalist, columnist, broadcaster and author, described by the Telegraph as one of the most powerful Asians in the UK, came out on 9 June that is worth a good deal of thought. She points out that the realities of office often hijack the best intentions. "These incumbents," she writes, speaking about the new Muslim mayor of London and new mixed-race mayor of Bristol, "who broke through barriers soon learn that established systems and structures hold out against fundamental change or reform. Promises and possibilities seem to vaporize after they get into office. A new realism sets in."  (See http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hillary-clinton-has-made-history-shell-have-no-choice-let-us-down-1564642)

One popular strategy for supporting one's candidate is to demonize opponents. As loudly as possible, with as much "evidence" as is available. Now there's a (perhaps tired) plot for a tale: 

an innocent outsider, who's managed to get through life as pure as the driven snow, is confronted by an evil witch who, although once dedicated to the light, was turned to the dark side by ceaseless nips from blood-sucking demons or the like... If you believe social media, that one doesn't even have to be imagined because it's playing out on the U.S. political stage as I write.

Sanders and Clinton in debate

Following another line of thought, it can be persuasively argued that neither President Obama nor Sen. Elizabeth Warren should have endorsed a candidate until after the convention. No doubt there are a half dozen conspiracy theories that explain their "rush" to do so. (Conspiracy theories might make for good fiction, but I suspect there was a more prosaic political calculation here: in the interest of consolidating resources against Drumpf, they hoped their own popularity would help give Hillary greater credibility with some segments of Bernie's supporters.)

One compelling idea for a political thriller: imagine a shadowy propaganda machine intent on weakening the U.S. by seizing on our idealism. Idealism doesn't come in one color or slogan, remember. (There are powerful segments of each campaign, even Drumpf's, that believe!) True believers can be easily manipulated, because they're already prepared to reject any view challenging their preconceived notion. In this story, such manipulation could be used to destabilize the election process, procuring the election of someone wholly unsuitable to lead the U.S. Then there might be an overreach by that person and the first ever military coup in U.S. history.

So many juicy plot lines can be imagined when you look over that cliff into the story possibilities....

Except... the 2016 U.S. presidential election isn't fiction, hard as the narrative currently unfurling may be to believe. It's easy to feel like you got caught somehow in a novel... except these events are playing out in real life, with real consequences. I hope voters will push past irrational fears, currently being massaged into a kind of hysteria by Drumpf's supporters. I hope they will listen to the grown-ups in the room, and choose discipline, reason and common sense.

It would be fun to write this story... but not so much to live it!

Political Thriller? Dystopian SciFi? Standing on the cliff edge and looking over.... (Part I)

It's warm in Seville, Spain with fresh mornings and heat-laden afternoons. The sky is a bright blue, and the sunlight has a luminous quality that intensifies colors and deepens shadows. Stories flash out of the cool mists that bathe the cafe/bars and filter up out of the tiled surface of the Alameda de Hercules park, too tempting not to saunter into a drenching on a hot afternoon, weaving though the droplets and cavorting (no other word for it) students.

The stories that come to mind try to reflect the brilliance of light and color, but the shadows seems to insist on a tinge of menace. Snatches of conversation heard around the dozens of cafe tables echo with concern, sometimes passion and often anger: there's an election on 26 June to elect the full parliament of Spain. It's the second general election in less than 7 months and is necessary because none of the several political parties won a clear majority.  Various attempts by the major parties to form a coalition government failed, in part due to inability to reconcile policy differences and come up with compromise positions. Some of the coalition attempts disgusted once optimistic voters. "How could Party X try to join with Party Y? I can't vote for Party X again after that," a friend told me. "I don't know who to vote for now."

The PP campaigns in Seville (2016)

Corruption scandals and economic difficulties are causing further pressures on the still developing democracy in Spain. The country's deficit--claimed to have been exacerbated by a tax cut in an election year meant to draw voters to the then-ruling party, the Partido Popular (PP)--prompted the IMF to call for increased austerity which caused budgets to be slashed at all levels; unemployment stands at around 21%.

There are fewer comments about the 23 June vote in Britain on whether to stay in the European Union (tagged "Bremain") or leave (tagged, "Brexit"). For many in Europe, it's unthinkable that Britain would really withdraw. For Brits, not so much. According to the British newspaper The Independent of 11 June, among probable voters in the UK, 55% support Brexit, while 45% favor staying in the Union. The worry in Europe about Britain's withdrawal is that if Britain leaves, others unhappy with their place in the Union will follow. Some voices add that Britain's departure would spur additional splintering (in Spain, the worry is that Catalonia will increase its pressures for independence).

The imagination boggles: so many plots and counterplots are suggested by these events. Vigilante groups seem to be growing in some European countries, ostensibly to protect against immigrant incursion... except there are few immigrants of any stripe in the areas where they're forming (See "Vigilantes Patrol Parts of Europe Where Few Migrants Set Foot," by  Miroslava Germanova, Boryana Dzhambazova and Helene Bienvenujun, NYT, 10 June 2016). The extreme right in France has been gaining strength. In the aftermath of recent floods and the series of strikes that preceded the floods, further destabilization--such as what could follow a successful Brexit vote--could threaten French liberalism.

The Austrian electorate barely avoided electing a President from the  right-wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) who ran on a platform voicing strong opposition to “forced multiculturalism, globalization and mass immigration," essentially, "Austria First!" The election was close enough that the FPO has challenged the results in Austria's Constitutional Court. (See https://www.rt.com/news/345856-freedom-party-austria-election/)

And then there's Putin, not above using old dog's tricks on new platforms, like news agencies that are just legitimate enough to give some credence when a misinformation story is slipped in to their mix.

Gotta say: for anyone considering writing a political thriller or  one of those dystopian visions of the future, the stories available to be "ripped from the headlines" just abound!